Real-time Reports and Analyses during the Farm Boom of 1972-1980

    Publications and papers by Emanuel Melichar (www. emelichar. com)

* Important or interesting paper

Agricultural Finance Outlook
National Agricultural Outlook Conference,
December 19, 1973,  11 pp.

Agricultural Finance Commentary
May 1974,  7 pp.

Agricultural Finance Commentary
December 1974,  7 pp.

*   Capital Gains in the U.S. Farming Sector, Nominal and Real, 1940-1974
Presented at the annual meeting of the
American Agricultural Economics Association,
August 11, 1975,  Text, 15 pp., Tables, 27 pp.
(co-author:   Marian Sayre)

Presentation to the National Agricultural Credit Committee
Chicago, Illinois,
September 22, 1975,   10 pp.

Comments on the Agricultural Finance Situation and Outlook
National Agricultural Outlook Conference,
November 20, 1975,  11 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook--Annual Series
February 1976,   228 pp.
(co-authors: Harriet Holderness and Marian Sayre)

This is the first of at least five annual series Databooks issued in 1976-79.
See Evolution of the annual series Databook.

 
*   Overall Measures of Financial Performance
Presented at the Conference on
Financing Primary Production in Commercial Agriculture: Research Issues,
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,
March 16, 1976,
Published with revisions as footnoted, in
Agricultural Finance Review
February 1977,   pp. 79-96

Tables to accompany Overall Measures of Financial Performance
March 16, 1976,   61 pp.

*   Current Agricultural Credit Situation in the United States
Presented to the Association of Agricultural Bankers,
Alexandria, Virginia,
June 21, 1976,   11 pp.,  Tables, 12 pp., print and splice Tables 4, 6, and 7.

Correction:   The second sentence should read:
"In U.S. history...there have been 6 booms in farm land
prices and capital investment, all of them related to a
sharp increase in farm crop prices."

Finish of this talk was unscripted, but we know how the movie ended!
Is a sequel now (2010-11) being shot?

 
Agricultural Finance Databook--Annual Series
September 1976,   140 pp.
(co-author: Marian Sayre)

Farm Capital Flows Revisited:  Financing the Boom
Presented at the Agricultural Credit Seminar,
The Ohio State University,
February 24, 1977,   17 pp.   (Annotated Charts and Tables)

Capital Finance and Capital Flows Accounts: Discussion
Proceedings of Workshop on Farm Sector Financial Accounts,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
April 14, 1977,   p. 72-78

*   Analytical Ratios Based upon a Farm Sector Cash Flow Statement:  Discussion
Proceedings of Workshop on Farm Sector Financial Accounts,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
April 15, 1977,  pp. 116-119

Agricultural Finance Databook--Monthly Series
March 1977,   27 pp.
(co-author: Marian Sayre)

First issue of the Agricultural Finance Databook--Monthly Series. From monthly statistical reports of farm lending supplied by the leading nonbank lenders, the Databook presented current and historical data on new and outstanding loans, as well as on renewals and refinancing at Production Credit Associations and Federal Land Banks and on outstanding mortgage commitments at life insurance companies. The few available monthly banking series were also shown. A monthly series Databook was issued in most months until January 1984. See Evolution of the monthly series Databook, which provides access to two issues that together present data from 1973 to 1983, as well as access to annual compilations of the "Overview" comments and Appendix materials that were featured in many issues.

 
Agricultural Credit Conditions at Banks in the Great Plains
Agricultural Finance Commentary
June 1977,  20 pp.

Discussion: External Finance: A Necessary Component
in Growth Projections for Southern Agriculture

Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics,
July 1977,   p. 35-39

*   Some Current Aspects of Agricultural Finance and Banking in the United States
Conference on Rural Finance Research, San Diego, California,
August 1, 1977,  Text, 12 pp., Charts, 8 pp., Tables, 5 pp.
Published in Japan as Nobiyuku Nogyo  No.  524.   (Don't ask me which version!)
*   Shorter version published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
December 1977,  pp. 967-972

*   Farm Finance--Current Developments in Perspective
Agricultural Finance Commentary,
    Financial conditions at the sector level,   pp. 2-15
    Implications for research analysts, pp. 32-40
November 1977

Farm debt ratios and ag-economic events both looked bad when I wrote this and the San Diego gloom-if-not-doom papers. But farm income revived in 1978 and 1979, extending the real estate boom for another 3 to 4 years, allowing the sector to get even more indebted, and, ironically, leading Federal Reserve analysts to devote major efforts to enhancement of the ability of rural banks to make even more farm loans! Don't skip the interesting historical quotes and footnotes.

 
Farm Credit Conditions at Rural Banks
Agricultural Finance Commentary
November 1977,  pp. 16-31

Agricultural Finance Databook--Annual Series
November 1977,   144 pp.
(co-author: Marian Sayre)

Agricultural Finance Databook--Annual Series, Outlook Conference Issue
November 1977,   54 pp.
(co-author: Marian Sayre)

Farm Finance--Current Developments in Perspective
Presented at the 1978 Food and Agricultural Outlook Conference,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
November 16, 1977,   10 pp.  Charts and Tables,   13 pp.
Published in Committee Print
1978 Food and Agricultural Outlook,
Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry,
U.S. Senate,
December 19, 1977,  pp. 179-188

Farm Real Estate Market Developments
Food and Agricultural Policy Issues,
Special Report 71,  Agricultural Extension Service,
University of Minnesota,
1978,  pp. 185-192

The Relationship Between Farm Income and Asset Values, 1950-1977
Presented at the Seminar on Food and Agricultural Policy Issues,
University of Minnesota,
March 27, 1978,   13 pp.
Published in Food and Agricultural Policy Issues,
Special Report 71,   Agricultural Extension Service,
University of Minnesota,
1978,   pp. 194-200

Relationships Among Farm Capital, Income, and Debt, 1950-1977
Presented at the Seminar on Food and Agricultural Policy Issues,
University of Minnesota,
March 28, 1978,   11 pp.
Published in Food and Agricultural Policy Issues,
Special Report 71,   Agricultural Extension Service,
University of Minnesota,
1978,   pp. 252-256;  Discussion, pp. 257-258

Rural Banking and Farm Credit Conditions
Agricultural Finance Commentary
April 1978,  10 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook--Quarterly Series
July 1978,   40 pp.
(co-author: Marian Sayre)

This first issue of the quarterly series Databook presented all current and also complete historical data from quarterly surveys of bankers involved in farm lending. These surveys were conducted for many years by the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis, and since the mid 1970s by the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. Each Reserve Bank issued a timely report of its findings, but gathering all five surveys into one publication greatly facilitated their use by analysts and others at national and multi-regional levels. And, ready access to historical data provided valuable perspective on current results. The usefulness of these surveys was evaluated in a 1976 Conference paper--see "Surveys of credit conditions" on pages 88-93 of the February 1977 Agricultural Finance Review. Over time, other quarterly series were added, and some later were deleted. See Evolution of the quarterly series Databook.

 
Current Financial Conditions, and Credit Policy Responses to Financial Stress
Proceedings of a Symposium, edited by E. Melichar and Amy Brooks,
American Agricultural Economics Association,
Blacksburg, Virginia,
August 7, 1978,  Symposium proposal, 4 pp.,  Abstract, 2 pp.,  Proceedings, 51 pp.

Farm Risks from Instability in Financial Markets
Presented at a Seminar Sponsored by Western Regional Research Project W-149,
Risk Management in Agriculture:  Behavioral, Managerial, and Policy Issues,
San Francisco, California,
January 26, 1979,  14 pp.
Published in Seminar Proceedings AE-4478,
Department of Agricultural Economics,
University of Illinois,
July 1979,  pp. 154-166.

*   Capital Gains Versus Current Income in the Farming Sector
Presented at the joint meeting of the
American Agricultural Economics Association and the
Western Agricultural Economics Association,  Pullman,   Washington,
August 1, 1979,  36 pp.
Shorter version published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
December 1979,  pp. 1085-1092,  with
    Discussion by R. J. McConnen,   pp. 1103-1104,
    Discussion by Duane G. Harris,  pp. 1105-1106,
    Comment by John P. Doll and Richard Widdows,   November 1981,  pp. 730-733,  and
    Reply by Emanuel Melichar,  pp. 734-737

Agricultural Credit Trends and Rural Banking Conditions
Agricultural Finance Commentary,
September 1979,  20 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook--Annual Series, Outlook Conference Issue
November 1979,   99 pp.
(co-author: Martha Waldheger)

A Review of Selected Farm Financial Developments
Presented at the 1980 Agricultural Outlook Conference,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
November 7, 1979,  34 pp.
Published in Committee Print
1980 Agricultural Outlook,
Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry,
U.S. Senate,
December 23, 1979,   pp. 399-419

*   Rural Banking Conditions and Farm Financial Trends
Wharton Agricultural Forecasting Meeting,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania,
March 27, 1980,  24 pp.

First publication of the weekly estimates of loans and deposits at agricultural banks.

 
*   Rural Banking Conditions in the First Half of 1980
July 1980,   6 pp.

This short paper shows the usefulness of the weekly state-level regression estimates of loans and deposits at agricultural banks that I had programmed in 1979, using data from weekly-reporting member banks and the technique described in the paper.   The system provided real-time weekly evidence of the weak loan demand and falling loan/deposit ratios at agricultural banks in the spring of 1980.

 
Farm Credit Experience and Rural Banking Conditions, First Half of 1980
National Agricultural Credit Committee,
Chicago, Illinois,
September 15, 1980,  16 pp. (tables only)

Using the estimation procedures described on page 16, in this paper prepared for presentation in Chicago on Monday, September 15, I was able to provide June 30 data on bank farm loans and August 20 data on deposits and loans at agricultural banks. Otherwise, only quarterly data would be available, sometime in October.

 
Farm Sector Financial Experience and Rural Banking Conditions
Presented to the seminar on
Financing Agriculture in the l980s,
Minneapolis, Minnesota,
September 24, 1980,   26 pp. (charts and tables only)

Selected Aspects of Farm Sector Financial Experience and Outlook
Presented at the Agricultural Outlook Conference,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
November 19, 1980,   20 pp.
Published in Committee Print
1981 Agricultural Outlook,
Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry,
U.S. Senate,
January 1981,  pp. 363-378

Agricultural Credit Experience at Commercial Banks
National Agricultural Credit Committee,
Washington, D.C.,
March 16, 1981,  18 pp. (charts and tables only)

Rural Banking Conditions and Experience
April 27, 1981,   11 pp.  (Charts and Table only)

*   New Estimates of Bank Deposits of Farmers
June 30, 1982,   16 pp.

Bank deposits of farmers rose much more during the boom than shown by USDA Balance Sheet series.