Real-time Reports and Analyses during the Farm Bust of 1981-1986, and beyond

    Publications and papers by Emanuel Melichar (www. emelichar. com)

* Important or interesting paper

The Impact of High Interest Rates on the Farm Sector
Excerpt from a Study by the Staff of the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
September 1, 1981,  pp. 28-38,   plus Appendices A and B,   2 pp.

Farm Sector Financial Experience and Rural Banking Conditions
Presented to the Staff,  Committee on Agriculture,
U.S House of Representatives,
September 14, 1981,  25 pp. (charts and tables only)

Farm Sector Financial Experience and Rural Banking Conditions
Presented to the National Agricultural Credit Committee,
September 21, 1981,  26 pp. (charts and tables only)

Farm Sector Financial Experience and Rural Banking Conditions
Presented to the National Association of Business Economists,
Washington, D.C.,
September 23, 1981,  26 pp. (charts and tables only)

Farm Sector Financial Experience and Rural Banking Conditions--Charts and Tables
October 1, 1981,  26 pp.

Farm Sector Financial Experience 
Presented to the Faculty Seminar,
Department of Agricultural Economics,
University of Maryland,
November 6, 1981,  11 pp.
Lacks charts.  See item dated March 31, 1982.

Farm Sector Financial Experience and Rural Banking Conditions
January 1, 1982,   (Charts and Tables only)

Liquidity and Farm Loan Interest Rates at Rural Banks
Presented to the National Agricultural Credit Committee,
March 15, 1982,  12 pp.   (Charts and Tables only)

Farm Sector Financial Experience
Presented at the Faculty Seminar,
Department of Agricultural Economics,
University of Maryland,
November 6, 1981.
Reissued with revised data for 1981,
March 31, 1982,   14 pp.

Commentary:  Farm income and returns to assets and equity
March 31, 1982,   4 pp.

Developments in Agricultural Finance
Presented to the
Newspaper Farm Editors of America,
Washington, D.C.,
April 27, 1982,   26 pp.

Testimony at hearings on the farm income situation
Outline, charts, and tables,
Committee on Agriculture, U.S. House of Representatives,
September 28, 1982,   17 pp.
Committee Print
State of the Farm Economy,
September 28, 1982,  pp. 85-101.   Also pp. 40-41, 48-52, and 54-55

Updates of tables in earlier papers
January 3, 1983,   25 pp.

Developments in Agricultural Finance
Updated tables for the April 27, 1982 paper,
March 21, 1983,   11 pp.

Toward Understanding the Financial Situation in Agriculture
April 7, 1983,   10 pp.

Farm Profits and Financial Distress
Workshop on Credit and Tax Policies for the Family Farm,
Senate Committee on Small Business,
April 27, 1983,   8 pp.
Committee Print
April 27, 1983,   pp. 181-188.   Also pp. 178-180 and 198-204

Trends Affecting and Exhibited by Commercial Banks in Agricultural Areas
Agricultural Communities:  The Interrelationship of Agriculture, Business,
Industry, and Government in the Rural Economy--A Symposium,
May 19, 1983,  26 pp.

Prepared by the Congressional Research Service
for the House Committee on Agriculture,
Committee Print
October 1983,  pp. 251-274

Farm Wealth:  Origins, Impact, and Implications for Public Policy
W. I. Myers Memorial Lecture,  Cornell University,
October 26, 1983.
Published as A.E. Res 83-40,
Cornell University,
June 1984,   33 pp.

A Financial Perspective on Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bulletin
January 1984,  pp. 1-13

Delinquent Farm Loans at Insured Commercial Banks and
Delinquent Loans at Rural Banks

February 29, 1984,  14 pp.

Delinquent Farm Loans at Insured Commercial Banks,
Delinquent Loans at Rural Banks, and
Loan-loss, Profit, and Capital Ratios at Agricultural Banks

Presented to the National Agricultural Credit Committee,
Washington, D.C.,
March 19, 1984,  28 pp.

Updated Agricultural Finance Data
May 1984,   15 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook
July 1984,   51 pp. (See the June 1987 issue)

Agricultural Finance Databook
Special supplement updating Sections 500 and 600,
August 1984,   pp. 23-51   (See the June 1987 issue)

Discussion: Agency Status for the Cooperative Farm Credit System
Presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association,
August 6, 1984,   5 pp.
Published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
December 1984,   pp. 620-621

Delinquent Loans at Rural Banks
Tables updating the report of March 19, 1984,
August 18, 1984,   6 pp.

Updated Agricultural Finance Data
September 4, 1984,   12 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook
September 1984,   51 pp.   (See the June 1987 issue)

The Rocky Road in Land Price Research:
Overlooked Gems, Missed Opportunities, and Outright Blunders

October 1984,   39 pp.

Excerpts from studies published over several decades,
plus notes for my presentation using this hand-out.
No written text was produced.

 
Updated Agricultural Finance Data
October 1, 1984   11 pp.

An Overview of Agricultural Banking Experience
Presented at the Financial Stress in Agriculture Workshop,
Kansas City, Missouri,
October 22, 1984,  15 pp.

Agricultural Banking Experience
Presented to the
Financial Stress in Agriculture Workshop,
Kansas City, Missouri,
October 22, 1984,  48 pp.

Financial Perspectives on American Agriculture, 1984
Presented at the fall meeting of the
Food and Agriculture Committee of the
National Planning Association, Des Moines, Iowa,
November 9, 1984,   20 pp.

The Incidence of Financial Stress in Agriculture
Presented at the Agricultural Seminar,
Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Congress,
November 13, 1984,  20 pp. (revised November 21)

The Incidence of Financial Stress in Agriculture
AEI Occasional Papers,
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research,
Washington, D.C.,
December 1984,  pp. 1-19

Updated Agricultural Finance Data
December 20, 1984,   12 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook
December 1984,   51 pp.   (See the June 1987 issue)

Commentary
on "Financial situation and the structure of U.S. agriculture," by Luther Tweeten,
January 28, 1985.   Published in
U.S. Agricultural Policy: The 1985 Farm Legislation,
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research,
Washington, D.C.,   pp. 113-116

Updated Agricultural and Banking Data
February 16, 1985,   9 pp.

Agricultural Banking Experience, 1984
Framework and Analysis for Agricultural Policy in 1985,
Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, U.S. Senate,
March 20, 1985,  pp. 256-277

Agricultural Banking Experience, 1984
Reflects banking data as of
April 5, 1985,  Published in
Research in Domestic and International Agribusiness Management,
Volume 6,
JAI Press, 1986,  pp. 181-199

Agricultural Banking Experience, 1984
Reissued with complete appendix,
May 7, 1985,  79 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook
July 1985,   51 pp.   (See the June 1987 issue)

Agricultural Banking Conditions, First Quarter, 1985
July 12, 1985,  16 pp.

Agricultural Finance and Banking Developments, First Quarter, 1985
Presented at the annual meeting of the
American Agricultural Economics Association, Ames, Iowa,
August 6, 1985,  26 pp.

Condition of Rural Financial Intermediaries
Presented at the annual meeting of the
American Agricultural Economics Association,
Ames, Iowa,
August 6, 1985,   14 pp.
(co-author:   George D. Irwin)
Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
December 1985,  pp. 1178-1183

Updated Agricultural Finance Data
September 26, 1985,   6 pp.

Farm Financial Experience and Agricultural Banking Experience
Statement presented to the Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization,
Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs,
U.S. House of Representatives,
October 23, 1985,  31 pp.
Committee print: The Problems of Farm Credit, pp. 23-53

Snapshot of the Mailing List
Number of persons by category or institution,
October 31, 1985,   3 pp.

Considerable effort was put into developing and maintaining a mailing list of persons thought to need agricultural finance information and analyses. An October 31, 1985 printout listed 1,314 recipients--probably near the peak total--arranged by category or institution. Of these,
550 were designated as primary recipients to receive all mailings. In the mid-1980s, mailings included reprints of the three Federal Reserve Bulletin articles about the farm boom and bust.

Every two years or so, the 88 university department heads on the list were asked for names of persons with research, teaching, or extension responsibilities in agricultural finance. The number of persons so designated at each university is shown in this snapshot.

 
Farm Financial Experience and Agricultural Banking Experience
Banking data through the third quarter, 1985
Presented at the Conference on Agricultural Finance,
National Governors' Association, Chicago, Illinois,
January 21, 1986,  42 pp.

The Farm Credit Situation and the Status of Agricultural Banks
A Study by the Staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
February 1986,  44 pp.

Agricultural Banking Experience, 1985--Preliminary Estimates
Presented to the National Agricultural Credit Committee, Washington, D.C.,
March 17, 1986,  15 pp.

The Farm Credit Situation and the Status of Agricultural Banks
Presented to the Twin Cities Agricultural Issues Round Table,
April 24, 1986,  44 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook
June 1986,   51 pp.   (See the June 1987 issue)

Agricultural Banks under Stress
Federal Reserve Bulletin,
July 1986,  pp. 437-448

The Farm Credit Situation and the Status of Agricultural Banks--Updated Charts and Tables
Presented to the National Agricultural Credit Committee, Chicago, Illinois,
September 15, 1986,  11 pp.
Also prepared for the annual meeting of
Regional Research Project NC-161, St.Paul, Minnesota,
October 7, 1986

Financial Condition of Agricultural Banks
in "Financial Condition of the Farm Sector and Financial Institutions,"
pp. 41-69,
Presented at the symposium
Financial Stress in Agriculture: Issues and Implications,
Task Force on Financial Stress,
American Agricultural Economics Association,
Kansas City, Missouri,
November 24, 1986,
Published in Agricultural Finance Review,
1987,  pp. 23-39

This Special Issue of the Agricultural Finance Review presents the Proceedings of the Symposium.

 
Relationships among Farm Income, Assets, and Debt
Presented at the
Agricultural Outlook Conference,
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
December 4. 1986,   4 pp.

Financial Condition of Agricultural Banks
Supplemental Report to the AAEA Task Force on Financial Stress,
February 20, 1987,   20 pp,

Gave notice that "Deterioration in the condition of farm loans at banks and of loans at agricultural banks was reversed during 1986.  ...improving trends that began in the second quarter continued through the fourth quarter."   The bust bottomed, the corner turned, the new path: upward.

 
Farm Credit Developments and the Financial Condition of Agricultural Banks
A preliminary report for the National Agricultural Credit Committee,
March 16, 1987,   28 pp.

Agricultural Finance Databook
June 1987,   51 pp.

The ultimate Databook for the times:
      Highlights calculation of farm sector profitability--returns to assets and equity, real capital gains.
      Income and asset data back to 1910, in both current and constant dollars, enable comparisons with the 1917-33 boom-bust cycle.
            For handy data, charts and references on that cycle, see also the Wake Forest Symposium presentation of May 1, 1992.
      Quarterly data from farm lenders and banks are interpolated and arrayed to facilitate short-term current analyses.

Before using this Databook, it is advisable to read at least the last six paragraphs of Evolution of the mid-1980s Databooks.

 
Turning the Corner on Troubled Farm Debt
Federal Reserve Bulletin
July 1987,  pp. 523-536

Agricultural Finance:  Turning the Corner on Problem Farm Debt
Presented at the Tenth Annual US/USSR Economic Symposium,
Tbilisi, Georgia, USSR,
September 1987,  50 pp.

Questioning Conventional Wisdom:  Views of the Boom and Bust in Farm Land and Credit
Lecture in Celebration of 50 Years of Graduate Studies at UConn,
The Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics,
The University of Connecticut,
October 29, 1990,  Exhibits,   15 pp.

The Impact of Interest Rates and Earnings Expectations on Bond, Stock, and Farmland Prices
Seminar, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology,
The Pennsylvania State University
April 19, 1991,   Exhibits,  8 pp.

See interesting Tables 7 and 8.
In Table 8,  "Bond rate minus earnings rate"
is the implied expected growth rate for the S&P 500.

 
Agricultural Bank Experience in the 1980s and a Comparison with the 1920s
Wake Forest University Symposium on Risk, Insurance, and Bank Failure,
May 1, 1992,  35 pp.   (Charts and Tables)

Introduction
Anatomy of an American Agricultural Credit Crisis--Farm Debt in the 1980s,
Farm Credit System Assistance Board,
October 7, 1992,   p. xiii-xvi

Farm Credit Developments,
Presented to the American Farm Bureau Federation,
November 23, 1993,   17 pp,   (Charts and Tables)

Farm Loan Interest Rates:  High Lender Margins and Profits
Presented to the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development,
Federal Reserve System,
Washington, D.C.,
June 1, 1994,  9 pp.