Pre-Boom Trends and Projections of Farm Capital and Credit

    Publications and papers by Emanuel Melichar (www. emelichar. com)

Liquidity of Agricultural Banks
May 17, 1965,  8 pp.

Capital and Credit Requirements of Agriculture, and Proposals to Increase Availability of Bank Credit
Fundamental Reappraisal of the Discount Mechanism,
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
November 6, 1969,  Contents, i-iii; 160 pp.
(co-author:  Raymond J. Doll)
Also published in: Reappraisal of the Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, Volume 2,
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
December 1971,  pp. 107-173

Part A reviews the financing requirements of farm investment and transfers, 1950-69, and develops a technique for estimating the financial flows implied for 1970-79 by three published projections of 1980 farm capital stock. The projections are shown to differ greatly in their implied amounts and types of capital flows in that decade, and therefore also in their implied increases in farm debt.

 
Farm Capital and Credit Projections to 1980
Presented at the annual meeting of the
American Agricultural Economics Association,
University of Kentucky,
August 18, 1969,  8 pp. 
Published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
December 1969,  pp. 1172-1177

A critical appraisal of the farm capital stock projection for 1980 published by the National Advisory Commission on Food and Fiber shows that additional projections of prices and savings are needed to estimate useful data such as 1980 current-dollar stocks and the implied 1965-79 capital and credit flows. Starting with the Commission's projection, alternative possible values are derived for these series.

 
The Farm Business Sector in the National Flow-of-Funds Accounts
Presented at the annual meeting of the
American Statistical Association, Washington, D.C.,
December 29, 1970.  Published in the
1970 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section,
American Statistical Association,
1971,  pp. 571-576

Summarizes the data and analyses of annual farm capital and credit flows from 1900 to 1969 that were developed by Tostlebe, Johnson, Melichar, and the Federal Reserve Flow-of-Funds Accounts.  Particular attention is given to the derivation and behavior of analytical ratios that measure the relative burden of capital flows and the relative importance of internal and external financing.

 
Financing Agriculture's Future--Prospects and Problems
Presented to the Upper Midwest Agricultural Credit Council,
June 25, 1971,  12 pp.
Lacks charts. Same eight charts appear in the next two items.

Aggregate Farm Capital and Credit Flows Since 1950, and Projections to 1980
Agricultural Finance Review,
July 1972,  pp. 1-7

Presents a concise summary of the major farm capital and credit flows, 1950-70, and of the projections that result from a coordinated extrapolation of selected past trends to 1980.  (For more details, see the papers listed below.)

 
Farm Capital and Debt, 1950-1972, and Projections to 1980
Presented at a joint seminar of the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Minnesota,
and the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,
November 28, 1972,  9 pp.  (Charts only)

Financing Agriculture:  Demand for and Supply of Farm Capital and Credit
Presented at the joint session of the American Agricultural Economics Association,
and the American Finance Association, Toronto, Canada,
December 29, 1972.  41 pp.
Published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
May 1973,  pp. 313-325

Reviews the factors affecting major farm capital and credit flows, 1950-71, and estimates annual internal financing. Presents a coordinated extrapolation of selected past trends and relationships to 1980, from which a projection of the increase in farm debt is derived.

 
Econometric Model of the Farm Financial Sector, and Projection Run #3A
December 1972,  37 pp.

Describes the model employed in the May 1973 AJAE article listed above, including
lists of the variables, projection equations, and both historical and projected data.

 
Determinents of the Postwar Farm Machinery Stock
Undated, circa 1972,   14 pp.

Develops a regression equation for farm machinery using
data for 1945-69, and shows a projection to 1980.